How to Shift Linear TV Budget to CTV: A 7-Step Scorecard for 2026
To shift linear TV budget to CTV, move in stages: audit what linear delivers today, score every line on reach, cost and measurement, then reallocate about 10% first and hold it for one full flight. The IAB's 2026 forecast has CTV spend rising 13.8% while linear falls 1.7%, so the shift is already underway.
The mistake is treating this as a swap. Linear and CTV overlap, but they are not the same audience, and a clean cut can drop your total reach. This guide gives you a seven-step scorecard you can run on your own plan today. Each step ends with a decision, not a theory.
Why the budget shift is happening in 2026
The direction is not in dispute. The size of the move depends on who you ask, and that is worth knowing before you set a target.
- IAB 2026 Ad Spend Forecast (survey of 205 U.S. buy-side executives, reported by MediaPost in January 2026): CTV spend up 13.8% in 2026, linear TV down 1.7%, after a 14.4% fall in 2025.
- Madison and Wall projections (reported by eMarketer in March 2026): total U.S. TV spend down 2.4% to $27.9 billion, with digital TV up 3% to $21 billion.
- WARC forecast (reported by eMarketer in September 2025): global linear TV spend falling more than 11% in 2026 to $139.1 billion.
Those numbers disagree on pace because they measure different things: a buyer survey, a U.S. spend projection and a global forecast. Our read is that linear is declining at somewhere between 2% and 11% depending on the market, while CTV grows in the low-to-high teens. For the full spend picture, see our breakdown of CTV vs linear TV ad spend in 2026.
Step 1: Audit every linear line item
List every linear buy from the last 12 months: network or station, daypart, spend, impressions, CPM and the outcome you can tie to it. Most plans hide two or three lines that carry the real reach and a long tail that carries almost none.
Flag each line as one of three types: reach driver (large, unique audience), frequency filler (repeats people you already reach) or unmeasured (you cannot connect it to any result). The filler and unmeasured lines are your first candidates to move.
Step 2: Score each line before you cut it
Here is the scorecard we use. Score each linear line from 0 to 2 on each of the five criteria, then total it. The cut-offs are our working rules of thumb, not an industry standard.
The NAMEX Linear-to-CTV Transfer Scorecard
| Criterion | Score 0 (keep on linear) | Score 2 (move to CTV) |
|---|---|---|
| Unique reach | Reaches an audience no streaming buy can match | Audience is mostly reachable on streaming |
| Targeting need | Broad mass reach is the goal | You want a defined audience or geography |
| Measurability | Panel estimates only | Household-level or outcome-level reporting is available |
| Frequency control | Repeat exposure is uncontrolled | Cap and pacing needed to stop waste |
| Minimum commitment | Large upfront commitment is acceptable | You need flexibility to start small |
Total of 8 to 10: move first. Total of 4 to 7: test a partial move. Total of 0 to 3: keep on linear for now. Live sports and appointment news usually score low on the first criterion, which is exactly why they stay.
Step 3: Know the cost gap before you promise savings
CTV is not a discount version of linear. On CPM alone it often costs more. These 2026 ranges were compiled by Vibe, a self-serve CTV vendor, from eMarketer data, so treat them as indicative and vendor-sourced.
| Format | CPM range |
|---|---|
| Linear local broadcast | $5 to $15 |
| Local cable | $10 to $20 |
| Linear national broadcast | $25 to $40 |
| CTV, open exchange | $15 to $30 |
| CTV, direct premium | $25 to $65 |
| Live sports streaming | $40 to $80+ |
The case for CTV is rarely a cheaper CPM. It is lower waste: you pay for the households you want, you can cap frequency, and you can start with a small test instead of a large upfront commitment. For platform-level rates, see our streaming ad CPM benchmarks by platform and the broader CTV CPM benchmarks for 2026.
Step 4: Size the first transfer
Do not move half your plan at once. A TVSquared study of converged TV campaigns, published in 2021, found that linear and streaming audiences overlapped by about 30%, and that putting at least 10% of TV impressions into streaming produced at least 15% incremental reach. It is an older and vendor-run study, so use it as a starting point, not a promise.
A practical first move looks like this. Take the lines that scored 8 to 10, and shift enough budget to put roughly 10% of your total TV impressions on CTV. Hold everything else steady for one flight so you can read the result cleanly.
Worked example, with illustrative numbers: if a plan buys 10 million TV impressions a month, move about 1 million of the weakest linear impressions to CTV. At a $20 CTV CPM that is $20,000 of CTV budget, funded by cutting the lowest-scoring linear lines.
Step 5: Set the CTV buy up to protect reach
A CTV buy that ignores frequency will quietly burn the budget you just moved. Set a household frequency cap from day one, choose inventory that matches the dayparts and content you are replacing, and keep the geography the same as your linear footprint.
- Frequency: cap at the household level and review weekly. Our CTV frequency capping framework covers the settings.
- Geography: match your linear DMAs or provinces so the comparison is fair.
- Inventory: use direct or premium deals where brand safety matters, and open exchange to extend reach.
- Setup: if this is your first campaign, follow the step-by-step CTV campaign setup guide.
Want a second set of eyes on your TV plan? Run your current mix through our free media audit and we will show you which lines look like candidates to move.
Step 6: Measure total TV, not each channel alone
The classic trap is judging CTV against linear on a channel-by-channel basis. Linear will look bigger on reach and CTV will look better on cost per outcome, and both can be true while your total reach drops. Measure the combined plan.
- Unduplicated reach across linear and CTV, not the sum of each.
- Household frequency on both, to catch overlap waste.
- A business outcome such as qualified leads, calls or store visits, read against a holdout region or a before-and-after window.
Attribution on CTV has its own pitfalls. Our guide on how to measure CTV attribution walks through the options and what each can and cannot prove.
Step 7: Review, then decide the next transfer
After one full flight, rescore the lines. Ask three questions: did total unduplicated reach hold or grow, did cost per outcome improve, and did frequency stay inside your cap? If all three are yes, move the next tier of lines. If reach dropped, put the transferred budget back on the strongest linear line and rerun with a smaller shift.
Expect a multi-quarter process, not a single flight. Most advertisers should keep some linear for the foreseeable future, especially for live events, and let the scorecard decide the rest.
A note for Canadian advertisers
Canadian buyers face a smaller streaming inventory pool and different publisher availability than the U.S. data above, and we could not find a verified Canada-only CTV versus linear spend figure for this guide, so we have not quoted one. If you are planning in Canada, start with our overview of connected TV advertising in Canada and our Toronto CTV advertising agency page.
Next step
Run the scorecard on your last 12 months of linear spend, pick the lines that score 8 to 10, and book a short call if you want help sizing the first transfer. Book an intro call with Ryan or request a free audit. You can also see how we run programmatic and CTV buying or browse all services.
Methodology and sources
This guide draws on the IAB 2026 Ad Spend Forecast as reported by MediaPost (January 28, 2026), Madison and Wall projections as reported by eMarketer (March 20, 2026), the WARC forecast as reported by eMarketer (September 5, 2025), Vibe's 2026 TV advertising cost benchmarks citing eMarketer (updated September 30, 2026) and TVSquared's State of Converged TV study (October 14, 2021). The scorecard thresholds and worked example are NAMEX's own working rules and are illustrative, not industry benchmarks.
Frequently asked questions
How much linear TV budget should I move to CTV first?
Start with roughly 10% of your TV impressions. A TVSquared study of converged TV campaigns found that putting at least 10% of impressions into streaming delivered at least 15% incremental reach. That study is from 2021, so treat 10% as a test size, then adjust to your own results.
Is CTV cheaper than linear TV?
Not on a CPM basis. 2026 rates compiled by Vibe from eMarketer data put local broadcast at $5 to $15 and open-exchange CTV at $15 to $30. CTV usually wins on targeting, minimum spend and measurement, not on raw CPM.
Can I keep my live sports and news on linear?
Yes, and most advertisers should. Live sports and appointment news are where linear still concentrates audiences. Score those lines on reach and keep them while you move the lines that CTV can replace.
How do I measure whether the shift worked?
Compare total TV reach, not channel reach. Track unduplicated reach across linear and CTV, frequency per household, and a business outcome such as qualified leads or store visits, using a holdout or before-and-after test.
Do I need a big budget to test CTV in Canada?
No. There is no minimum spend at North American Media Experts, and programmatic is priced on a CPM basis. Self-serve CTV platforms also publish low daily minimums, so a small test flight is realistic.